First Round
Saturday, May 8 at 12:00 EDT
2021 Division I Men’s Tennis Championship
Hurd Tennis Center
Waco, Texas

Oregon vs Alabama

#3 Oregon

  Record: 17-6
  ITA: 37 (23.36)
  Slam: 44 (91.52)
  TRN: 41 (89.70)
✔ Massey: 30 (7.51)
  UTR: 33 (76.78)
  Coaches Poll: 41

#2 Alabama

  Record: 14-12
✔ ITA: 26 (30.96)
✔ Slam: 28 (93.06)
✔ TRN: 27 (91.27)
  Massey: 39 (7.31)
✔ UTR: 30 (77.06)
✔ Coaches Poll: 25


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Match Information

Oregon def. Alabama 4-3
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Predictions

Ranks listed here are the metric’s ranking within the field of 64:

  • Composite: BAMA - Alabama (60%) def. Oregon (40%)
  • Slam: BAMA - #28 Alabama (70%) def. #44 Oregon (30%)
  • TRN: BAMA - #27 Alabama (71%) def. #41 Oregon (29%)
  • Massey: ORE - #30 Oregon (57%) def. #39 Alabama (43%)
  • Lineup: BAMA - Alabama (59%) def. Oregon (41%)
  • UTR: BAMA - #30 Alabama (+0.28) def. #33 Oregon (-0.28)
  • ITA: BAMA - #26 Alabama def. #37 Oregon
  • Coaches Poll: BAMA - #25 Alabama def. #41 Oregon
  • Seeding: BAMA - #2 Alabama def. #3 Oregon

Individual Matchups

This assumes the top players and doubles teams listed are starting.
Click on a Singles match to show individual predections for each line.

Singles:

  1. Emmanuel Coste (ORE) - 5-4 at #1, 11-6 in duals, 11-6 overall
    Edson Ortiz (BAMA) - 5-5 at #1, 12-10 in duals, 13-12 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: ORE - Coste (70%) def. Ortiz (30%)
    • Slam: ORE - Coste (72%) def. Ortiz (28%)
    • TRN: ORE - Coste (75%) def. Ortiz (25%)
    • Massey: ORE - Coste (59%) def. Ortiz (41%)
    • UTR: ORE - Coste (75%) def. Ortiz (25%)
    • ITA: BAMA - Ortiz (18.41) def. Coste (3.31)
     
  2. Joshua Charlton (ORE) - 6-2 at #2, 12-6 in duals, 12-6 overall
    Patrick Kaukovalta (BAMA) - 3-2 at #2, 9-11 in duals, 15-17 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: ORE - Charlton (69%) def. Kaukovalta (31%)
    • Slam: ORE - Charlton (67%) def. Kaukovalta (33%)
    • TRN: ORE - Charlton (67%) def. Kaukovalta (33%)
    • Massey: ORE - Charlton (67%) def. Kaukovalta (33%)
    • UTR: ORE - Charlton (75%) def. Kaukovalta (25%)
    • ITA: BAMA - Kaukovalta (11.09) def. Charlton (2.88)
     
  3. Quinn Vandecasteele (ORE) - 10-8 at #3, 12-8 in duals, 12-8 overall
    Zhe Zhou (BAMA) - 3-1 at #3, 9-9 in duals, 15-15 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: BAMA - Zhou (67%) def. Vandecasteele (33%)
    • Slam: BAMA - Zhou (71%) def. Vandecasteele (29%)
    • TRN: BAMA - Zhou (76%) def. Vandecasteele (24%)
    • Massey: BAMA - Zhou (58%) def. Vandecasteele (42%)
    • UTR: BAMA - Zhou (63%) def. Vandecasteele (37%)
    • ITA: BAMA - Zhou (13.61) def. Vandecasteele (1.67)
     
  4. Jesper Klov-Nilsson (ORE) - 10-2 at #4, 17-3 in duals, 17-3 overall
    Riccardo Roberto (BAMA) - 5-7 at #4, 11-8 in duals, 19-12 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: ORE - Klov-Nilsson (52%) def. Roberto (48%)
    • Slam: ORE - Klov-Nilsson (51%) def. Roberto (49%)
    • TRN: BAMA - Roberto (50%) def. Klov-Nilsson (50%)
    • Massey: ORE - Klov-Nilsson (63%) def. Roberto (37%)
    • UTR: BAMA - Roberto (53%) def. Klov-Nilsson (47%)
    • ITA: BAMA - Roberto (2.71) def. Klov-Nilsson (2.61)
     
  5. Brandon Lam (ORE) - 7-3 at #5, 11-6 in duals, 11-6 overall
    Gabriel Diaz Freire (BAMA) - 3-1 at #5, 10-6 in duals, 15-10 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: BAMA - Freire (68%) def. Lam (32%)
    • Slam: BAMA - Freire (67%) def. Lam (33%)
    • TRN: BAMA - Freire (71%) def. Lam (29%)
    • Massey: BAMA - Freire (67%) def. Lam (33%)
    • UTR: BAMA - Freire (68%) def. Lam (32%)
    • ITA: ORE - Lam (1.91) def. Freire (1.56)
     
  6. Luke Vandecasteele (ORE) - 3-6 at #6, 9-8 in duals, 9-8 overall
    Alexey Nesterov (BAMA) - 3-6 at #6, 7-6 in duals, 12-10 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: BAMA - Nesterov (73%) def. Vandecasteele (27%)
    • Slam: BAMA - Nesterov (67%) def. Vandecasteele (33%)
    • TRN: BAMA - Nesterov (73%) def. Vandecasteele (27%)
    • Massey: BAMA - Nesterov (72%) def. Vandecasteele (28%)
    • UTR: BAMA - Nesterov (80%) def. Vandecasteele (20%)
    • ITA: BAMA - Nesterov (1.92) def. Vandecasteele (1.57)
     

Doubles:

  1. Charlton/Vandecasteele (ORE) - 9-3 at #1, 9-3 in duals, 9-3 overall
    Kaukovalta/Roberto (BAMA) - 10-7 at #1, 11-9 in duals, 16-14 overall
    Sorry, we don't have any metrics for this match
     
  2. Coste/Klov-Nilsson (ORE) - 4-5 at #2, 12-8 in duals, 12-8 overall
    Nesterov/Ortiz (BAMA) - 3-3 at #2, 7-7 in duals, 7-7 overall
    Sorry, we don't have any metrics for this match
     
  3. Lam/Matsushita (ORE) - 4-3 at #3, 4-3 in duals, 4-3 overall
    Garza/Zhou (BAMA) - 0-2 at #3, 0-2 in duals, 0-2 overall
    Sorry, we don't have any metrics for this match
     

Dual Outcome Based on Individual Metrics

Based on the composite metrics for each individual match:

  • Alabama should win 4 or more singles matches 39% of the time.
  • Oregon should win 4 or more singles matches 27% of the time.
  • The winner of the doubles point should decide the match the other 34% of the time.
  • If Alabama wins the doubles point, their chances of winning the dual improve to 73%.
  • If Oregon wins the doubles point, their chances of winning the dual improve to 61%.

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