Third Round
Sunday, May 16 at 7:35 EDT
2021 Division I Women’s Tennis Championship
USTA National Campus
Orlando, Florida

#16 California vs #1 North Carolina

#16 California

  Record: 19-7
  ITA: 17 (45.98)
  Slam: 14 (91.31)
  TRN: 13 (87.02)
  Massey: 12 (8.07)
  UTR: 16 (62.17)
  USTA Poll: 14 (170.00)
  Coaches Poll: 17

#1 North Carolina

  Record: 29-0
✔ ITA: 1 (87.72)
✔ Slam: 1 (100.00)
✔ TRN: 1 (100.00)
✔ Massey: 1 (9.78)
✔ UTR: 2 (65.05)
✔ USTA Poll: 2 (325.00)
✔ Coaches Poll: 1


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Match Information

North Carolina def. California 4-0
Go to Live Stats | Box Score | Photos | Quotes

Predictions

Ranks listed here are the metric’s ranking within the field of 64:

  • Composite: UNC - North Carolina (98%) def. California (2%)
  • Slam: UNC - #1 North Carolina (99%) def. #14 California (1%)
  • TRN: UNC - #1 North Carolina (99%) def. #13 California (1%)
  • Massey: UNC - #1 North Carolina (96%) def. #12 California (4%)
  • Lineup: UNC - North Carolina (99%) def. California (1%)
  • UTR: UNC - #2 North Carolina (+2.88) def. #16 California (-2.88)
  • ITA: UNC - #1 North Carolina def. #17 California
  • USTA Poll: UNC - #2 North Carolina def. #14 California
  • Coaches Poll: UNC - #1 North Carolina def. #17 California
  • Seeding: UNC - #1 North Carolina def. #16 California

Individual Matchups

This assumes the top players and doubles teams listed are starting.
Click on a Singles match to show individual predections for each line.

Singles:

  1. Haley Giavara (CAL) - 12-10 at #1, 12-10 in duals, 12-10 overall
    Sara Daavettila (UNC) - 10-1 at #1, 15-1 in duals, 15-1 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: UNC - Daavettila (89%) def. Giavara (11%)
    • Slam: UNC - Daavettila (86%) def. Giavara (14%)
    • TRN: UNC - Daavettila (95%) def. Giavara (5%)
    • Massey: UNC - Daavettila (90%) def. Giavara (10%)
    • UTR: UNC - Daavettila (85%) def. Giavara (15%)
    • ITA: UNC - Daavettila (64.17) def. Giavara (18.44)
     
  2. Julia Rosenqvist (CAL) - 11-7 at #2, 14-7 in duals, 14-7 overall
    Alexa Graham (UNC) - 5-0 at #2, 11-2 in duals, 16-2 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: UNC - Graham (86%) def. Rosenqvist (14%)
    • Slam: UNC - Graham (91%) def. Rosenqvist (9%)
    • TRN: UNC - Graham (90%) def. Rosenqvist (10%)
    • Massey: UNC - Graham (81%) def. Rosenqvist (19%)
    • UTR: UNC - Graham (84%) def. Rosenqvist (16%)
    • ITA: UNC - Graham (15.03) def. Rosenqvist (2.23)
     
  3. Valentina Ivanov (CAL) - 9-5 at #3, 10-8 in duals, 10-8 overall
    Cameron Morra (UNC) - 6-2 at #3, 15-6 in duals, 15-6 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: UNC - Morra (81%) def. Ivanov (19%)
    • Slam: UNC - Morra (85%) def. Ivanov (15%)
    • TRN: UNC - Morra (80%) def. Ivanov (20%)
    • Massey: UNC - Morra (82%) def. Ivanov (18%)
    • UTR: UNC - Morra (78%) def. Ivanov (22%)
    • ITA: UNC - Morra (20.00) def. Ivanov (1.97)
     
  4. Jada Bui (CAL) - 8-5 at #4, 10-6 in duals, 10-6 overall
    Elizabeth Scotty (UNC) - 6-1 at #4, 11-2 in duals, 11-3 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: UNC - Scotty (87%) def. Bui (13%)
    • Slam: UNC - Scotty (88%) def. Bui (12%)
    • TRN: UNC - Scotty (89%) def. Bui (11%)
    • Massey: UNC - Scotty (81%) def. Bui (19%)
    • UTR: UNC - Scotty (88%) def. Bui (12%)
    • ITA: UNC - Scotty (5.93) def. Bui (1.95)
     
  5. Hannah Viller Moeller (CAL) - 8-5 at #5, 14-7 in duals, 14-7 overall
    Makenna Jones (UNC) - 1-2 at #5, 13-2 in duals, 15-2 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: UNC - Jones (89%) def. Moeller (11%)
    • Slam: UNC - Jones (91%) def. Moeller (9%)
    • TRN: UNC - Jones (94%) def. Moeller (6%)
    • Massey: UNC - Jones (85%) def. Moeller (15%)
    • UTR: UNC - Jones (85%) def. Moeller (15%)
    • ITA: UNC - Jones (18.39) def. Moeller (1.79)
     
  6. Anna Bright (CAL) - 10-3 at #6, 18-3 in duals, 18-3 overall
    Fiona Crawley (UNC) - 3-0 at #6, 23-0 in duals, 25-0 overall

    Predictions

    • Composite: UNC - Crawley (86%) def. Bright (14%)
    • Slam: UNC - Crawley (95%) def. Bright (5%)
    • TRN: UNC - Crawley (92%) def. Bright (8%)
    • Massey: UNC - Crawley (75%) def. Bright (25%)
    • UTR: UNC - Crawley (83%) def. Bright (17%)
    • ITA: UNC - Crawley (16.89) def. Bright (2.79)
     

Doubles:

  1. Giavara/Ivanov (CAL) - 12-5 at #1, 12-5 in duals, 12-5 overall
    Daavettila/Morra (UNC) - 10-1 at #1, 10-1 in duals, 10-1 overall
    Sorry, we don't have any metrics for this match
     
  2. Bright/Moeller (CAL) - 11-6 at #2, 11-6 in duals, 11-6 overall
    Jones/Scotty (UNC) - 8-1 at #2, 10-1 in duals, 10-1 overall
    Sorry, we don't have any metrics for this match
     
  3. Bui/Richardson (CAL) - 2-2 at #3, 2-2 in duals, 2-2 overall
    Sanford/Tran (UNC) - 12-3 at #3, 16-3 in duals, 16-3 overall
    Sorry, we don't have any metrics for this match
     

Dual Outcome Based on Individual Metrics

Based on the composite metrics for each individual match:

  • North Carolina should win 4 or more singles matches 97% of the time.
  • California should win 4 or more singles matches 1% of the time.
  • The winner of the doubles point should decide the match the other 3% of the time.
  • If North Carolina wins the doubles point, their chances of winning the dual improve to 99%.
  • If California wins the doubles point, their chances of winning the dual improve to 3%.

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